RBA monetary policy statement due at the bottom of the hour - one more preview

RBAA Reserve Bank of Australia statement due at 0330GMT on Tuesday 2 April 2019

No change in the cash rate is pretty much a unanimous expectation

Eyes will be on Governor Lowe's accompanying statement for a firmer dovish stance (or not)

Earlier previews here:

Waiting now on the RBA:

• Hey, hey its RBA day! Preview
• How will the AUD respond to the RBA announcement today? 3 scenarios.
• RBA monetary policy meeting - preview
• AUD traders heads up - preview of the RBA meeting on 2nd April 2019

And later … the budget:

• AUD traders - following the RBA meeting today we get the government budget

And this:

• RBA meeting today, but here's an outlook further ahead

Via Société Générale on today's RBA:

• expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow at 1.50%, but do not discount the possibility of a more dovish tack after the RBNZ last week.
• Futures are assigning a 50% probability to a rate cut by July, which may seem extreme given that the unemployment rate is 4.9%, an eight-year low. The RBA previously saw an even probability of a rate increase or cut, but since the Fed meeting last month, 2y out to 5y AGB yields have dropped to below the cash rate target. The 3m/10y curve has inverted following the US and has thus marked up the likelihood of a recession. Six of the last seven times when the curve inverted were followed by RBA rate cuts.
• AUD/USD backed off 0.70 in March but could be cornered if the RBA signals a shift.

I posted this after the recent unemployment drop below 5%