The Reserve Bank of Australia sept September 2019 policy meeting is on 3 September 2019

  • expected to be on hold
  • announcement and statement due at 0430GMT

I posted a preview earlier:

Here is another one, a snippet from what HSBC are expecting:

unemployment rate trending higher and global trade tensions escalating, more RBA cuts are expected

  • but not quite yet
  • we see the RBA on hold in September as it continues to assess the impact of its recent cuts
  • Our central case sees the RBA cutting its cash rate in 4Q 2019 to 0.75% and then again in 1Q20 to 0.50%

And, on the AUD (again, in summary):

AUD-USD ... has notably outperformed Asia FX lately

  • fundamental driver has been the stabilisation in rate differentials
  • housing looks to have bottomed
  • a further spike in our proprietary 'RBA fiscal jawbone indicator' reveals the central bank's limits and preference for the government to provide cyclical support
  • 2Q GDP print presents downside risks

the test to the AUD's resilience comes mainly from global factors

  • The AUD is vulnerable to further volatility in US-China trade tensions
  • the rise in the terms of trade that could deliver Australia its first current account surplus since the 1970s in 2Q is waning

Overall, this environment argues for the AUD-USD to remain in its gradual downtrend, keeping the currency in a 0.67-0.70 range for now. Yet we recognise that global risks have increased and a further deterioration could see the currency slide into the low-60s, levels last seen in 2009.