RBNZ cash rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement - where to for the NZD

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

A rundown on scenarios for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today - announcement due at 0200GMT 7 August 2019 

  • Oh, and do be aware Governor Orr's press conference will follow an hour later.

Via Westpac, this in brief. The bank expects:
  • 25 bp cut
  • and stating that they might cut the OCR further, depending on the data
  • Most likely … ease again in November
Scenarios:

Market neutral 
  • forecasts will show the OCR dropping to 1.1% 
  • a 70% chance we think
  • NZD/USD +30 pips
Our dovish scenario
  • a 25% chance
  • cut, and an OCR forecast lowered to 1.0%
  • NZD/USD would fall 1c
Our hawkish scenario
  • a 5% chance
  • cut and an OCR forecast indicating no further easing
  • NZD/USD would rise 1.3c
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Earlier:
A rundown on scenarios for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today - announcement due at 0200GMT 7 August 2019 

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