Response to AUD jobs data: caution on January/February seasonality
The data focus, after the NZ GDP, was Australian jobs data
The 'headline' of note was unemployment dropping under 5%, to an eight year low:
Via Westpac, from a detailed analysis, this in very brief (bolding is mine):
- we are very cautious about making too much of the January/February releases given the large underlying seasonality in these months
- However … it does appear that the momentum in employment has slowed.
- there is nothing in this release to make us change our view that employment growth will take a breather through the first half of 2019 leading to a lift in unemployment. But, to be fair, the fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% also means that at this point in time, the RBA will also feel little pressure to change their forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.75%. It will all come down to who is the better forecaster.
Meanwhile AUD is crabbing 9sideways) along at the top its session range: