Reuters median forecast has the Federal Reserve to begin taper early in 2022

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reuters with the results of a poll of economists:

  • US core PCE price index at 2.8% would cause discomfort at the Federal Reserve, median forecast of 41 economists shows
  • US GDP to grow 6.5% in 2021, 4.1% in 2022 (vs 6.2%, 4.0% in April poll)
  • Federal Reserve to start tapering its monthly asset purchases in Q1 2022, said 31 of 51 economists

I posted a little earlier on PCE expectations from Goldman Sachs:

Comments from ING on that number:

  • "I have put 2.8%, but to be honest anything above 2.5%. However, it is more about how sustainable it looks rather than a specific monthly figure and has to be viewed in the context of what is happening to growth and jobs"
  • "If we have core PCE above 2.5% in early 2022 as well, we will seriously have to consider an accelerated QE tapering with a rate hike before the end of the year" 

Fed Chair Powell at the virtual FOMC:

Reuters with the results of a poll of economists:

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