A research paper from a Singapore university has located abnormal price movements and imbalances in orders that indicate `statistically significant` biases in trading toward subsequent policy surprises.

Bloomberg spoke with the author.

The results could indicate that someone who received the information during the media lockup is leaking it. In an interview, Bernile mentioned a further possibility: Someone who got the information by some other means could be trading on it during the lockup to throw investigators off the scent. “From a rational perspective, it would make sense to behave that way,” Bernile said.

For me, I`m not sure this passes the sniff test but the author has a Ph.D in finance and was a visiting scholar at the Securities and Exchange Commission during the crisis so he has some credibility.