The ECB meet Thursday 13 September 2018, preview
The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting is coming up today
- Announcement is due at 1145GMT
- ECB President
hits the karaoke microphonepress conference is at 1230GMT
Previews posted earlier:
- Barclays ...ECB meeting due on Thursday - preview
- Morgan Stanley with an early ECB preview
- UBS … ECB meeting coming up Thursday - preview
- Credit Suisse on what to expect from the ECB and BOE
- ECB is said to slightly lower economic growth projections in tomorrow's meeting
- The last ECB meeting in late July proved to be one of the least eventful that we can recall. In advance of that meeting, our view was that the main outstanding question in relation to ECB policy surrounds how it will conduct its reinvestment strategy. In the end, the issue wasn't even discussed by the GovCo, and but the question remains whether we will get any further information at this meeting ... we think not, or certainly not the level of detail the market is looking for.
- In the absence of significant policy announcements, the focus is therefore likely to be on the latest staff forecasts, but with no major changes to either the growth or inflation projections, the Governing Council's economic outlook shouldn't have changed since the last meeting
- we do not expect any policy changes, but the focus will be on the ECB's new macroeconomic projections - released together with the policy rate decision on Thursday.
- We expect a modest downward revision for 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts, while the inflation outlook should remain unchanged. President Draghi will have the opportunity to address many more issues in the Q&A.
- It seems likely to us that the ECB's language on the economic outlook will remain relatively upbeat - as it was in July. In short, the ECB will most likely remain confident that inflation is on a path towards its primary objective and that growth will remain solid and broad-based over the medium term. We expect the next move by the ECB to be to raise the depo rate in September 2019.