The FOMCs central tendencies and dot plot for the June 2021 meeting

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: Central Banks

June 2021 FOMC meeting 

Dot Plot:

The dot plot for the June FOMC meeting shows:
  • 7 fed officials see hikes in 2022
  • 13 fed official see hikes in 2023.  
dot 2021

Below is the dot plot from the March meeting. At the time, 4 Fed officials expecting hikes in 2022 and 7 Fed officials in 2023.

dot plotCentral Tendencies June 2021:

Central tendencies

Central Tendencies for 2021:
  • GDP 6.8% to 7.3% vs.5.8% to 6.6% in March. GDP HIGHER
  • Unemployment 4.4% to 4.8% vs 4.2% to 4.7% in March.  Unemployment rate marginally higher. 
  • PCE 3.1% to 3.5% vs 2.2% to 2.4% in March. Inflation much higher.
  • Core PCE 2.9% vs 3.1% vs 2.0% to 2.3% in March. Core inflation much higher.
Central Tendencies for 2022:
  • GDP 2.8% to 3.8% to 3.0% to 3.8% in March.  Growth near unchanged.
  • Unemployment 3.5% to4.0% vs 3.6% to 4.0% in March.  Employment near unchanged
  • PCE 1.9% to 2.3% vs 1.8% to 2.1% in March. Inflation marginally higher. 
  • Core PCE 1.9% to 2.3% vs. 1.9% to 2.1% in March.   Core unchanged. 
Highlights:
  • More Fed officials say higher rates in 2022 (from 4 to 7)
  • GDP much higher in 2021
  • Headline inflation and core inflation also much higher in 2021
  • 2022 central tendencies are near unchanged from March estimates
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