The Fed isn’t going to signal a September taper in today’s FOMC minutes.
The message from a multitude of Fed members has been consistent over the three weeks since the July 31 meeting: wait and see what the data brings. There will be usual musings on ‘modest or moderate’ growth, improvements in employment and the regular battles on inflation. There is some chatter that the minutes could talk about the operational details of tapering QE but past minutes have never included that kind of detail.
The main risk is some type of headline misinterpretation as reporters and traders imagine signals that aren’t really there. On balance, that would skew more toward imagined tapering signals which might boost the dollar.
The minutes will be released at 1800 GMT. Existing home sales are the only other indicator on the US calendar, at 1400 GMT.