Reuters latest poll of economists on the US economy and Federal Reserve

  • probability of a US recession in the next two years has moved higher, to 40% (median of those polled), from 35% in the previous poll
  • GDP forecasts are for slower
  • few Fed rate hikes seen in 2019

Citing:

  • flattening of the U.S. yield curve (spread between two- and 10-year note yields falling to the smallest since the run-up to the last U.S. recession)

(flattening yield curve suggests investors believe economic growth and inflation will slow)