We're into the final countdown to Powell
Powell to speak at Jackson Hole
This speech has been keeping markets in check all week. In general, the best bet on the Fed is always betting on something more dovish. Powell and his predecessors rarely let down markets.
That said, the bond market is pricing in more easing than Powell can deliver.
The singular thing to watch in the speech is whether or not Powell repeats 'mid-cycle adjustment'. If that's in there, risk aversion is going to prevail. If he doesn't say it, then risk trades rally.
There are a dozen other little things that could tweak or change that but the words 'mid-cycle adjustment' are key.
Note that there is no Q&A after the speech.