What to watch from the Federal Reserve this week - minutes, Jackson Hole
The Federal Open Market Committee July meeting minutes are released on Wednesday 21 August
- due at 1800GMT
As a quick what to expect, in brief via UBS:
The meeting delivered:
- 25bp cut
- upbeat statement tone
- muddled news conference message
UBS infers from this that the decision was contentious, with some members wanting a larger rate cut, while several (meaning at least 6) saw no reason to cut
UBS expect the minutes tone will probably lean dovish
Later in the week, the Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22 to 24).
- Powell set to speak Friday, the 23rd, on monetary policy challenges
- the whole notion that "some central banks are approaching a neutral policy setting, [while] others have yet to begin the process of removing policy accommodation" is ripe for a reassessment.
- multiple media interviews with many Fed members in and around the event
- An exercise in hand-holding the market akin to what we witnessed in December 2018 would not be surprising. This would likely include: 1) setting the stage for, at minimum, a 25bps cut at the September confab; 2) stressing that Quantitative Tightening is over (for those who missed it); and 3) stressing that the committee bias is now back in accommodation mode.