More hikes are on the way

The market sees the Bank of Canada holding rates unchanged in September and then raising rates in October but it's a close call.

  • The chance of no change in September is 64.6%
  • The chance of a hike in October or sooner is 60.5%
  • By December, the chance of one hike rises to 70.6% but there's also a 25% chance of two or more additional hikes

The Bank of Canada took a more-hawkish stance than anticipated and that made the market confident that hikes are coming but the timing and pace is entirely unclear.