What's priced in for the Bank of Canada now

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Cut expectations rise

The chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike for the March 4 meeting is now at 27.5% in the OIS market, up from 6% yesterday. The chance of an April 15 cut has risen to 51% from 22% yesterday.

USD/CAD touched a new high of 1.3143 after the press conference but was only able to stretch the range by a couple pips.

Poloz put a big emphasis on data, particularly on consumer data. The November retail sales report is due on Thursday (we've already got Dec from the US) but then the Canadian calendar gets quiet until the jobs report on Feb 7.

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