When will interest rates rise

The November Bank of England decision is nearly 50/50 after the statement today and Mark Carney's comments.

The next meeting is November 2 and the OIS market is pricing in a 51.1% chance of a hike, with a 48.9% chance rates are left unchanged. The odds of a hike were at just 20% before the CPI report this week.

What's interesting to note is that we've been here before. The market had priced more of a 50% chance of a hike by now back in early July, before UK data went south.

If the BOE does decide to wait, the odds of a hike go up to 65.9% in December.

The chance of two hikes by the middle of 2018 is 46%.

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