What's priced in for today's RBNZ decision
The RBNZ decision is coming up
The RBNZ announces their latest interest rate decision at 0200 GMT. Note that they recently moved the time much later than the old slot, which was right at the end of North American trade.
This will be an interesting one with the OIS market pricing in a 40% chance of a cut. I wouldn't take that market as gospel because it's thinly traded. The probability rises to 57% in June and 78% in August, so anything outside of a dovish hold would be a big surprise.
Economists lean the opposite way of the market with a solid majority forecasting a cut to 1.50%. Of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 14 anticipate a cut.
If the RBNZ does lower rates, NZD/USD is threatening a return to the January flash-crash lows.