Two sides at odds over Fed lift off
We have a battle between the economist and the market over whether the Fed will hike this year
In an FT poll of economists 65% of 46 asked say the Fed will still hike this year
The market's probability of a hike in December stands at 31.9% (up from 30.4% last week). That's split between 29.8% looking at a 0.25bp increase and 2.1% a 0.50% hike. October is right off the table with only an 8% chance of a move (up from 6% last week).
The FOMC is next week so there's still plenty of time and plenty of data to see minds changed. This week and early next week the data is mostly about housing, while later next week, before the FOMC, we have consumer confidence and durable goods. While good news might come too late for this FOMC, it will increase the calls for hikes in Dec. Conversely, bad data will push hikes back even further.
So what do the ForexLive readership think about whether we get a hike before the end of the year ?