The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%,4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4%½% and the deposit rate at 3¾%.4¼%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. This reflects the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices, particularly for energy, which have been pushed up by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The strength of the US dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries. Tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world. As economies slow and supply disruptions ease, global inflation is expected to come downGlobal economic growth is slowing, although it is proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy is weakening but consumption continues to be solid and the labour market remains overheated. The gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks continues, although further progress could be disrupted by geopolitical events.
In the United States, labour markets remain very tight even as restrictive financial conditions are slowing economic activity. The Bank projects no growth in the US economy through most of next year. In the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages. China’s economy appears to have picked up after the recent round of pandemic lockdowns, although ongoing challenges related to its property market will continue to weigh on growth. Overall, the Bank projects that global growth will slow from 3% in 2022 to about 1½% in 2023, and then pick back up to roughly 2½% in 2024. This is a slower pace of growth than was projected in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, GDP growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continuescontinued to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight. The demand for goods and services is still running ahead of the economy’s ability to supply them, putting upward pressure on domestic inflation. Businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and. Canada’s labour market remains tight, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services.
The effects of recent policy rate increases by the Bank are becoming evident in interest-sensitive areas of the economy: housing activity has retreated sharply, and spending by households and businesses is softening. Also, the slowdown in international demand is beginning to weigh on exports. Economic growth is expected tounemployment near historic lows. While commodity exports have been strong, there is growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand: consumption moderated in the third quarter, and housing market activity continues to decline. Overall, the data since the October MPR support the Bank’s outlook that growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year as the effects of higher interest rates spread through the economy. The Bank projects GDP growth will slow from 3¼% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024. .
In the last three months, CPI inflation has declined from 8.1% toremained at 6.9%, primarily due to a fall in gasoline prices. However, price pressures remain broadly based% in October, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s preferred measuresmany of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases. Measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Nearremain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high and short-term inflation expectations remain high, increasingelevated. The longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.
The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate. CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023, and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.
Given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Looking ahead, Governing Council expects that will be considering whether the policy interest rate will needneeds to rise further. Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target. Governing Council continues to assess how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to restoreachieving the 2% inflation target and restoring price stability for Canadians and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.
