The data is here:

Australia Q4 Headline CPI 1.9% q/q (expected 1.6%)


  • headline,
  • trimmed mean core measure,
  • and weighted median core measure

of CPI have all come in higher than expected.

AUD/USD jumped to a 5-month high on the release.

Services inflation accelerated from 4.1% y/y in Q3 to 5.5% in Q4. Demand is very strong, its this demand that the RBA is targeting to reduce with its rate hike. They are not done yet. The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on February 7. Another interest rate hike for the cycle is (IMO) locked in, +25bp coming up.

I've seen analysts forecasting a pause at the February meeting. I expect some of them will revise that call to +25bp now. Market pricing is firming around the prospect of a +25bp hike in February too.


The rate hike cycle from the RBA so far in the pic below. You can add in +25 in February 2023 to this list.

rba rate hike December 2022