The Australian Bureau of Statistics will be publishing CPI data for the October - December quarter on Wednesday, 25 January 2023 at 11.30 am local time in Sydney:

  • 0030 GMT on Wednesday, 25 January 2023
  • 1930 US ET

I posted this yesterday:

Priors and expected:


  • expected 1.6% q/q, prior 1.8%

For the y/y,

  • expected 7.5%, prior 7.3%

Core inflation : Trimmed mean

  • expected 1.5% q/q, prior 1.8%

  • expected 6.5% y/y, prior 6.1%

Core inflation: Weighted median

  • expected 1.4% q/q, prior 1.4%

  • expected 5.5% y/y, prior was 5.0%


Preview comments in brief from Westpac:

The Trimmed Mean is forecast to lift 1.6% in December, a moderation from the 1.8% gain in September which we are forecasting to be the largest quarterly rise this cycle.

The annual pace for the Trimmed Mean is set to lift to 6.6%yr, from 6.1%yr in September, which again is our forecast peak in core inflation. We are forecasting core inflation to moderate to 3.4%yr by end 2023.

The key factors in our forecasts are:

  • ongoing robust gains in food prices,
  • rising fuel prices due to the increase in fuel excise,
  • and a bounce back in holiday travel prices

As for the RBA, Westpac are forecasting a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting, February 7. And tipping further hikes ahead until a p[eak in May.


Preview comments via Scotia:

Graph via Scotia's preview:

cpi preview January 25 2023