Westpac preview the wages data due mid-week from Australia, Wednesday, 17 August 2022 at 0130 GMT:
- We feel if there was ever a time for wages to regain some of relationship with broader labour market indicators, late 2022 and into 2023 must be it.
- The anecdotes suggest wages pressures have strengthened as employers bid up wages in an effort to attract workers in a very tight labour market. But the WPI is a very pure quality-adjusted measure of hourly wage rates that can be slow to move compared to broader measures of labour costs. As such, we have pencilled in a 0.9% rise in June but suggest the risks are to the downside. Should the WPI print a larger number, this would be a surprise suggesting we are indeed in a very strong wage inflationary period.
An upside surprise would be a positive input for the Australian dollar, it'd suggest no slowing in rate hikes to come from the RBA over the next few months.
This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.