This via the folks at eFX.

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Bank of America on USD/JPY

  • "With lower oil prices and stalling outward M&A by Japan Inc., corporate JPY supply has likely peaked for now. However, investors' USD demand, another pillar of USD/JPY strength this year, could continue as the Fed's rate hikes boost the USD/JPY carry and hedge cost. In the last tightening cycle, USD/JPY declined and JPY strengthened after the Fed stopped hiking rates at end-2018 with developed market (DM) central banks unable to hike as much
  • Meanwhile, in the preceding cycle before the Global Financial Crisis, USD/JPY rose and JPY weakened while the Fed held policy rate at 5.25% for 14 months after the final hike and DM central banks hiked as aggressively," BofA notes.

Next Fed rate hike is due September 21. Prior to that we get the Jackson Hole speech from Chair Powel.

fomc 2022 meeting June to December