Macklem BOC Oct 26

Ahead of the decision, the OIS market was pricing in a 62% chance of a 25 bps hike while economists narrowly favored a 50 bps hike.

This is exactly the scenario I laid out in my BOC preview. It's 50 bps but the statement indicates the BOC will now 'consider' rates, which is another word for pausing.

"In terms of a trade, there may be an opportunity to fade a CAD jump on a dovish 50 bps hike," I wrote. CAD rallied on the decision but has given 30 pips back already.

The speech from Kozicki tomorrow is now a bigger event because she will be pressed on whether the BOC is going to pause. I don't expect her to be unequivocal but she will highlight all the tightening in the pipeline and the need to wait and see.

USDCAD 15 mins