Macklem BOC Oct 26
  • If economy develops as forecast and inflation falls as predicted, more rate hikes will not be needed
  • We expect economic growth to be close to zero for the first three quarters of 2023
  • We need to pause rates before we slow the economy and inflation too much, that is what we are doing now
  • Inflation is turning the corner, monetary policy is working, inflation is still too high
  • more hikes will be needed if wage growth doesn't moderate alongside inflation expectations, and pricing behavior doesn't normalize reiterates that risks to inflation forecast or balance, but we continue to be more concerned about the upside risks
  • If upside risks materialize, we are prepared to raise rates
  • data suggests core inflation will start to decline in the months ahead, excess demand appears to have peaked