Macklem March 6
  • Shelter price inflation is certainly weighing on our decisions
  • If we look beyond shelter, we're seeing underlying inflation persist
  • There are other underlying inflationary pressure beyond shelter
  • We're looking for further evidence of sustained downward pressure in underlying inflation
  • We will take our April decision in April
  • We most likely won't get 2% inflation this year
  • The labor market has come into better balance, vacancies are now at 'more normal' levels
  • We don't want inflation to get stuck materially above our target
  • We are comfortable with our measures of core inflation
  • Our message is: It's working, inflation is coming down
  • There was 'clear consensus' not to cut rates now at Governing Council
  • There are some risks the housing market could re-accelerate, we've built some rebound into our projections
  • We are taking each decision one meeting at a time
  • We're not going to be lowering rates at the pace we raised them


  • Commercial real estate risk spread more broadly than in the US
  • There does seem to be some exuberance in equities

USD/CAD has fallen further as Macklem highlights broader underlying core inflation.

Here is what RBC had to say on the BOC:

The BOC’s decision to hold the overnight rate steady again in March confirmed that interest rates are already at levels that are high enough to restrict economic activity and further slow price pressure. We expect the BOC to start gradually lowering the policy rate by mid-year, after allowing for clearer signs of easing in core inflation readings to come through.