Before the post starts, hat tip and big thanks to JC in the comments to this post.


Via Nikkei media, a significant piece if its accurate.

The Bank of Japan is considering raising its inflation forecasts in January. This would be via the Bank's next quarterly economic outlook report due after its policy board meeting on January 17 and 18. New forecasts would show price growth close to its 2% target in fiscal 2024. Nikkei cite people familiar with discussions at the BOJ:

  • proposed changes would show the core consumer price index, or prices excluding fresh food, rising around 3% in fiscal 2022, at least 1.6% but less than 2% in fiscal 2023, and nearly 2% in fiscal 2024
  • The previous inflation forecasts released in October came in at around 2.9%, 1.6% and 1.6%, respectively

Raising the inflation forecast like this would provide the basis for "a pivot away from ultraloose monetary policy".


Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda has been insistent that he expects inflation to fall from the middle of Japan's next fiscal year. Japan's fiscal year begins April 1.

A change to forecasts would be very significant and carries the implication of a policy pivot as the Nikkei says, and provide a tailwind to the yen.

boj dates 2023