Some findings from the poll on 48 economists, which was conducted on 10-16 May:

  • ECB expected to end APP in July
  • That will be followed up with a 25 bps rate hike
  • 26 of 48 economists also expect another 25 bps rate hike in September
  • 43 of 48 economists expect rates to no longer be negative by year-end

The above forecasts come despite a median 30% probability of a recession being observed in the euro area within the next 12 months. So, that probably hints that the window to tighten policy is closing for the ECB if anything else.

That said, the poll opinion is still slightly more humble than what money markets are pricing for the ECB. As things stand, there's roughly 90 bps worth of rate hikes priced in for this year i.e. nearly four 25 bps rate hikes. With June being off the table, that roughly implies a rate move by the ECB at each of its remaining meetings in July, September, October, and December.