• Rushing the move is not smart nor beneficial
  • Upside risks to inflation are "alive and kicking"
  • Need more hard evidence on inflation outlook
  • Only in June will we reach the confidence threshold on that
  • But discussions on easing should ready start, will use the weeks ahead for that

This just reaffirms the current market expectations. If all goes according to plan, the ECB should communicate its intention to pivot in April. That will be followed up by the first rate cut in June. The odds of an April move are a measly ~13% with June fully priced in at the moment.