ECB Lagarde
  • Monitoring market tensions closely
  • the economy to recover over coming quarters
  • industrial production should pick up
  • labor market strong

- 9:54 AM ET : the EURUSD has moved higher initially with the price currently trading at 106.17. The 200 hour moving average is up at 1.06329.

  • Underlined price pressures remain strong
  • wage pressures strengthening
  • long-term inflation expectations remain near 2%
  • Risk to growth outlook tilted to the downside (runs counter to "the economy to recover over coming quarters")
  • Risk of Russian conflict could push up inflation
  • Fading of energy shock could lead to higher growth as companies adjust
  • A stronger rebound in China could give a fresh boost to commodity prices and foreign demand
  • sees further slowdown in loan growth to households

- 10 AM ET: German DAX moves higher. The index currently trades at 14874.27 up 139 points or 0.94%

Q&A begins at 10:01 AM ET: EURUSD trades at 106.07

  • If baseline to persist when the uncertainty reduces, we know we will have a lot more ground to cover, but it is a big caveat (i.e., "if the baseline were to persist")
  • Uncertainty completely elevated
  • Impossible to determine what the rate path will be (in contrast to the clarity from last meeting - raise 50 bps). Data dependent

10:07: The price of the EURUSD moves back below 1.0600 and trades to 1.0584. The 100 day moving average is down at 1.0554

  • We are not waning on our commitment to reduce inflation toward 2%. The determination is intact
  • The policy action we take will be data dependent
  • Given uncertainty, better to make decisions that we believe is robust
  • Board proposed no other option
  • The decision was adopted by very large majority
  • Three – four members didn't support decision
  • Dissenters wanted more time
  • Also decision was taken in a rather large record time (indicating full support for the 50 basis point hike - EURUSD ticks back higher)
  • No trade-off between price stability and financial stability. With this decision we are demonstrating this. Inflation is expected to remain well above targets.

10:15 NOTE: The projections for 25 basis point hike in May is 50-50

  • ECB's De Guindos: Banks resilient. Capital higher than earlier. Liquidity position of banks robust. Higher rates are positive for margins of banks. Exposure to Credit Suisse quite limited.

Meanwhile SocGen shares are down 2.3% on the day. BNP Paribas share are in negative territory at -0.5% and Credit Agricole shares are down -1.5%.

German Dax moves back down. Index is now up only 5 points at 14740 after reaching a high of 14906 during Lagarde's press conference.

  • Not seeing a lot of improvement in underlining inflation
  • Beginning to see transmission of policy through the credit channel

10:25: EURUSD moves to press conference low below 1.05786. The price trades to 1.0572.

  • Look very carefully at credit to corporate's, households, terms and conditions, restrictions. Looking to see if financial conditions are tightening and then its impact on the economy
  • Monetary policy seems to have transmitted rather rapidly

Press conference concludes at 10:42 AM ET. The EURUSD is trading at 1.0588. The press conference low price reached 1.0572. That was right near the low of the aforementioned swing area between 1.0573 and 1.0585 from previous posts today.. The high-priced extended to 1.0620.

Overall, the EURUSD remains near the middle of wider target levels with the 100 day moving average of 1.05541 and the 200 hour moving is 1.06322 as the extremes. Those levels were also near the low and high for the trading day.