• It is better to frontload to keep inflation expectations anchored
  • Prospect of a recession in the euro area has grown more likely
  • Gas supplies have clearly been weaponised by Russia in an energy war

This continues to rebuff the narrative that 50 bps is the minimum but it remains to be seen whether the ECB will do 75 bps next month. That said, seeing German inflation data today, it might very well get the hawks riled up to push for the latter.