Awaiting the Federal Reserve today. A couple of brief snippets via:
- We expect a third 75 bps rate hike.
- There has been some talk of 100 bps, but Fed officials pushed back on that option earlier and we do not expect them to take it now.
- We expect the FOMC to deliver another large 75 bps rate increase, lifting the target range for the Fed Funds rate to 3.00%-3.25%.
- In doing so, the Committee would bring the policy stance above its estimate of the longer-run neutral level.
- We also look for the FOMC to provide more hawkish signals through the update of its economic projections, and for Chair Powell to build on his message from Jackson Hole.
- Tempting to buy the rumor/sell the fact for the USD, we prefer to be neutral. While the curve has aggressively repriced terminal, there is risk that Powell could channel Volcker on messaging. Over the balance of the year, we still see more USD strength.
Earlier previews here:
- Another 75bps hike on Wed; Risk of USD stronger for longer - BofA
- Fed could raise rates until they force unemployment higher - WSJ