This is via the folks at eFX.
Goldman Sachs discusses its expectations for the Fed and ECB policy trajectories for the remainder of this year.
- "We expect the Fed to deliver 25bp hikes in March and May for a peak funds rate of 5.00-5.25%, although more hikes may be needed if the economy reaccelerates as the drag on growth from past policy tightening fades," GS notes.
- "We expect the ECB to hike by 50bp in March before stepping down to a final 25bp hike in May for a terminal rate of 3.25%, given the sharp improvement in the outlook for headline inflation and diminished risks of strong second-round effects. On balance sheet policy, we expect the ECB to stop reinvestments completely after June, when the recently announced APP run-off of €15bn per month starting in March 2023 ends," GS adds.
Note the Goldman Sachs Federal Reserve caveat:
- more hikes may be needed if the economy reaccelerates as the drag on growth from past policy tightening fades
Seems a sensible thing to say.