A piece in the Australian Financial Review carries remarks from Macquarie’s global head of strategy.
- “My view for some time was that as we go through 2023 and 2024, there is a much higher probability of loosening of both fiscal and monetary policies than tightening,”
- “What is going to happen is when Federal Reserve starts tightening – via quantitative tightening and lifting rates – and rates are getting closer and closer to neutral rates, volatility of asset prices will increase substantially.”
- “When that happens, the financial conditions index will go through the roof and at that point in time, inflation and growth rates will start disappearing and Federal Reserve will have no choice but to backpedal.”
AFR link is here for a little more (may be gated but well worth the quick read if you can access it).
In the immediate future of course is today's Federal Open Market Committee decision.
- 1800 GMT then 1830 GMT for Powell's news conference
Previews can be found here:
- 50bps today then more, "sooner rather than later"
- FOMC preview: 50bps & trimming the bs
- FOMC previews from down under
- FOMC preview: " A move other than a half percentage point hike would be a surprise"
- What's priced in for the FOMC
- BoA are focused on Powell's press conference following the FOMC statement
- Former top Fed policy staffer suggests neutral rate could be 5% (not really a preview, but an eye-opener)
- Barclays FOMC preview - 50bp hike already signaled - eyeing Powell's press conference