US equities continued their climb on Wednesday, spurred on her again by thoughts of Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts in 2024 (pricing for cuts in May is surging.)

Deutsche Bank analysts are wary, pointing out that:

  • this is at least the 7th time in this cycle that markets have seen a clear reaction to a potential dovish pivot

And outlines the six previous times these expectations were not fulfilled:

  • a consistent story of this cycle so far has been that markets have pushed out the timing of future rate cuts

The cynical among us might point out markets have priced in six of the previous pivots:

  • November 2023: “Weak data ... downside surprise in CPI”
  • March 2023: “banking turmoil following SVB’s collapse”
  • Late September/Early October 2022: “Major market turmoil centered on the UK”
  • July 2022: “Global recession fears, weak inflation print”
  • May 2022: “Rising risks to global growth”
  • Late February/Early March 2022: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”
s&p500 fed pivots 16 November 2023

Plenty of trading opportunities though.