Headlines from the Fed's beige book are trickling in...

Fed's beige book: There have been wide-ranging input costs increases from strong demand
  • There has been a wide ranging input costs increases stemming from strong demand for raw materials, logistical challenges, and labor market tightness
  • Wider availability of some inputs notably semi conductors and certain steel products, led to easing of some price pressures
  • Strong demand generally allowed firms to raise prices with little pushback, though contractual obligations held back some firms from increasing prices
  • Leisure and hospitality and manufacturing contacts reported an uptick in unemployment, but many were still limiting operating hours due to lack of workers
  • Contacts in several other sectors also noted labor related constraints on meeting demand childcare, retirements, and Covid safety concerns were widely cited as sources that limited labors supply
  • Loan demand increased in almost all districts
  • Many districts noted concerns that the federal vaccination mandate could exasperate existing hiring difficulties
  • Nearly all districts reported robust wage growth
  • Hiring struggles and elevated turnover rates led businesses to raise wages and offer other incentives such as bonuses and more flexible working arrangements

After two days of testimony from Fed's Powell, and his admission that inflation was more persistent (not transitory), the comments from the beige book are congruent with that view.

The summary comments from the report are below. The full report can be found by CLICKING HERE.

Overall Economic Activity:

Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Federal Reserve Districts during October and early November. Several Districts noted that despite strong demand, growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Consumer spending increased modestly; low inventories held back sales of some items, notably light vehicles. Leisure and hospitality activity picked up in most Districts as the spread of the Delta variant ebbed in many areas. Construction activity generally increased but was held back by scarce materials and labor. Nonresidential real estate activity increased widely, while residential real estate activity grew in some Districts but declined in others. Manufacturing growth was solid across Districts, though materials and labor shortages limited expansion. High freight volumes continued to strain distribution systems. Energy activity was generally higher, growth in professional and business services varied widely, and demand for education and health services was largely unchanged. Loan demand increased in almost all Districts, though some reported declines in residential mortgages. Agriculture saw improved financial conditions overall and rising land values. The outlook for overall activity remained positive in most Districts, but some noted uncertainty about when supply chain and labor supply challenges would ease.

Employment and Wages

Employment growth ranged from modest to strong across Federal Reserve Districts. Contacts reported robust demand for labor but persistent difficulty in hiring and retaining employees. Leisure and hospitality and manufacturing contacts reported an uptick in employment, but many were still limiting operating hours due to a lack of workers. Contacts in several other sectors also noted labor-related constraints on meeting demand. Childcare, retirements, and COVID safety concerns were widely cited as sources that limited labor supply. Many Districts noted concerns that the federal vaccination mandate could exacerbate existing hiring difficulties. Nearly all Districts reported robust wage growth. Hiring struggles and elevated turnover rates led businesses to raise wages and offer other incentives, such as bonuses and more flexible working arrangements.

Prices:

Prices rose at a moderate to robust pace, with price hikes widespread across sectors of the economy. There were wide-ranging input cost increases stemming from strong demand for raw materials, logistical challenges, and labor market tightness. But wider availability of some inputs, notably semiconductors and certain steel products, led to easing of some price pressures. Strong demand generally allowed firms to raise prices with little pushback, though contractual obligations held back some firms from increasing prices.