• It would not be appropriate to signal hate hikes would be gradual or deliberate; too much is out of our control
  • We need more information before we can decided what we'll do a few months from now
  • If inflation comes down faster than expected, that would be good news and the Fed would need to do less
  • A pause in spring on rate hikes is conceivable
  • Other factors should start to bring inflation down even before the Fed acts
  • Yield curve suggests we are not that far away from neutral, not as far as we thought

This is an interesting take. It's a bit of a pushback on the idea of agressive hiking but also reflects his bias on the 'transitory' front. Ultimately though he comes down on the side of watching data, which is a bit of a cop-out but that's the state of play right now.