On Tuesday evening (Australian time) the latest Federal budget was released. Its a pre-election budget and as such contains generous bribes for voters funding (i.e. even more fiscal stimulus into an already hot economy).

I've seen a note from Westpac saying it won't change the RBA calculus and analysts at WPAC are still tipping an August rate hike lift off.

However, Nomura are now tipping June, July and August hikes:

  • 15bp hike in June
  • 25bp in July
  • 25bp in August

The next Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting is on April 5, then May 3. Its only a matter of time before we get analysts tipping May 3 IMO.

RBA Gov Lowe has well and truly abandoned the '2024 at the earliest' rate hike forecast he had. I remember my two-word analysis of the '24 forecast at the time it was made ... 'as if'. Wish I could dig up the link. I am not a fan of such silly overconfidence from anyone, let alone the country's top central banker.

Phillip Lowe RBA bad luck brian meme