We now look for the MPC to vote for a 15bp rise in Bank Rate at the February MPC meeting.

In line with our previous view, we think the second hike will be in May, regardless of whether liftoff occurs in December or February, given the benefit of synchronising the hiking cycle with MPR meetings

After this, we continue to expect the MPC to switch to a 25bp hike every six months, taking Bank Rate to 0.75% in 2022Q4 and 1.0% in 2023Q2, slightly below market pricing

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