Goldman Sachs says getting a soft landing may be difficult, citing historical patterns in managing the economy.

  • “Taken at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a hard path to a soft landing”
  • A recession isn’t inevitable - post-Covid-19 normalizations in labour supply and durable goods prices will help the Federal Reserve
  • 11 of 14 tightening cycles in the U.S. since World War II were followed by a recession within two years, but only 8 can be even partially attributed to Fed tightening
  • projected the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at about 15%

Info via Bloomberg, link (gated)

Goldman Sachs