Goldman Sachs issued the call Wednesday, US time. Outlets have picked it up.
"Small and medium-sized banks play an important role in the US economy,"
"Any lending impact is likely to be concentrated in a subset of small and medium-sized banks."
GS analysts assume that small banks with a low share of FDIC-covered deposits will reduce new lending by 40%
- other small banks will reduce new lending by 15%
- leading to a 2.5% drag on total bank lending
GS conclude that:
- the effect of tightening would have the same impact on demand growth as would an interest rate hike of 25 to 50 basis points
Maybe someone will be happy with that ...?