Goldman Sachs on the Reserve Bank of Australia, raising their terminal rate expected to 4.1% from 3.6% previously:

  • We do not expect the RBA will risk falling too far behind a synchronised global tightening cycle.
  • All considered, we now expect plus 25 basis point rate hikes each month to May 2023 (inclusive)
  • to a terminal rate of 4.1%
  • followed by 110 basis points of easing over 2024 to 3%
  • In context, our revised terminal rate forecast sits around the hawkish extreme of peer economist expectations, but is broadly in line with pricing in financial markets. We see risks to our forecast in both directions.
rba cycle cash rate 01 November 2022