Via a JP Morgan note, a shrug of the shoulders:

  • what we are seeing now is qualitatively what should be expected after 450bp of rate hikes.

The main points:

  • The delayed effects of tight monetary policy is creating the usual stress in financial conditions
  • Headwinds to credit growth could subtract 0.5-1.0% off of GDP in coming quarters
  • We think this is broadly consistent with our outlook for a Fed-induced recession
  • The Fed isn't done, in our view, and we look for another 25bp hike next week, and a final hike in May


Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is March 21 and 22.

Remember folks:

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