JP Morgan Asian market analyst says that the potential high for USD/JPY in 2023 is around ¥152, and in 2024 to ¥155 .
Citing familiar points, most notably divergent monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which has lead to a huge yield differential between the USD and yen, a differential that continues to widen. Says the BOJ is not able to do much about this given its holding rates negative to encourage inflation while the Fed is the opposite.
As for intervention to halt the losses for yen, this is not so easy:
- Japan's foreign exchange reserves are limited
- the 2022 interventions cost the country about US$62 billion
- which will dissuade the government from aggressive intervention (this Japan's Ministry of Finance that instructs the BOJ to intervene) until the rate hits circa 155
Weekly USD/JPY candles: