Moody's offered up views on the Federal Reserve and recession risk on Wednesday in a report and also in a TV interview with Mark Zandi, chief economist at the rating agency.

In summary:

  • the CPI data confirms that the rate hikes are over
  • I don't think the the bar is high for them to actually cut rates
  • they need to be absolutely sure that inflation is going to get back to their target before they do that
  • rate cuts probably not until mid-next year, after that I think they cut rate slowly
  • the economy is going to be able to avoid recession
  • job growth is slowing
  • wage growth is moderating
  • "We put the odds of a recession beginning in 2024 at 25%. ... Behind the still-elevated recession probabilities are the considerable number of downside risks evident in our U.S. risk matrix."
moodys recession risk usa 16 November 2023