This via the folks at eFX.

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  • "We now expect the Governing Council to hike by 75bp at the September meeting...Looking beyond next week, we now look for 50bp in October (vs 25bp before), followed by two more 25bp hikes for a terminal rate of 1.75% (vs 1.5% before), taking policy more clearly into restrictive territory," GS notes.
  • "While a sharper recession or a return of sovereign stress could lead to an earlier end to the hiking cycle, we see risks skewed towards a higher terminal rate in the event of more persistent inflationary pressures and stronger second-round effects," GS adds.

The ECB meet on Thursday 8 September.