This summary of MUFG on the yen is via the folks at eFX.

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  • MUFG reports that the perceived lack of urgency from Governor Masayoshi Ueda to alter the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) current monetary policy is contributing to yen selling. In a recent address in the Diet and a subsequent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Ueda indicated that while the BoJ would continue with monetary easing "patiently" to achieve its price stability goal, there were emerging signs of sustainable inflation, and he would not hesitate to act if necessary.
  • MUFG believes that the BoJ could quickly shift its yield curve control (YCC) policy without much warning. A meeting in May between the Financial Services Agency (FSA), Ministry of Finance (MoF), and BoJ - the first since March 17th - indicated that Tokyo is not indifferent to yen depreciation.
  • With the potential for a snap election and the government's gasoline subsidy ending on June 1st there are growing concerns about inflation. The nationwide core-core CPI YoY rate accelerated to 4.1% in April, the highest since August 1981.
  • Meanwhile, foreign investors have been aggressively purchasing Japanese equities - buying JPY 7 trillion in just seven weeks. The bank notes that broader inflation pressures may not ease in H2 as the BoJ expects and that resistance to JPY selling could build further. MUFG sees limited scope for USD/JPY to move higher from its current level.


ps. If you are looking for intervention I post this earlier ion the week on what will give you a heads up:

usdjpy chart boj intervention guide 08 June 2023