The latest New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Consensus Forecasts in brief:
- Annual average GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.4 percent in the year to March 2024 before recovering to just 1.1 percent in 2025.
- Higher interest rates are starting to dampen demand as the impact of previous increases in the Reserve Bank’s Official Cash rate (OCR) is transmitting through to the broader economy.
- Added to this is the downside risk from weaker demand for New Zealand exports, primarily due to the weaker growth outlook in China.
- Offsetting these are the upside risks from the strong recovery in net migration, which will likely support demand over the coming years.
- The inflation outlook for the year ending March 2024 has been revised higher. Annual CPI inflation is forecast to ease to 4.3 percent before decreasing to 2.4 percent in 2025.