This update from Kiwibank in New Zealand on their outlook

The main points:

  • The outlook for the Kiwi economy is deteriorating into a recession. Large parts of the global economy will fall into recession, as central banks hike interest rates to squash inflation. The RBNZ is even more extreme.
  • The RBNZ are hell-bent on forcing inflation back within its mandated 1-to-3%yoy target band. And fair enough, their credibility as an inflation-fighter is being tested. They expect the OCR to hit 5.5% in order to achieve the required economic slowdown.
  • We think a move beyond 5% is a step too far. What the RBNZ will do (hike to 5.5%), is beyond what we think the RBNZ should do. We place a much larger weight on the global slowdown, higher interest rates are effective, and Kiwi are feeling the pinch now.

Analysts also provide forecasts for the NZD/USD:

Dec 22: NZD/USD to 0.65

Jun 23 0.57

Dec 23 0.55

Jun 24 0.59

Dec 24 0.63

Jun 25 0.67

Dec 25 0.69

---

nzd forecast sceanrio 06 December 2022