Nomura analyst speaking with Bloomberg TV on Monday:

  • EUR/USD towards 1.02 & towards parity is very possible as long as oil prices don't find a way to collapse
  • U.S yields ... U.S rates suggest that EUR/USD should be at 1.01 to 1.03 already and if oil gets to $100/bbl to $110/bbl it's very easy for the Euro area to see their currency weaker because they are an energy importer
  • EUR/USD ... it's been a zigzag up down up down ... looks to be finally an exit of that range band price action ... looks more like a trend now

On the risks to this lower EUR view:

  • the main risk is if the US data starts to come in soft and U.S yields stop climbing

And how the shutdown avoidance supports the USD:

  • U.S government shutdown has been avoided which means that we're going to get non-farm payrolls, we're going to get the jolts data and crucially we're not going to get all those government workers laid off
  • it was going to be really difficult for the market to buy the dollar with initial claims jobless claims spiking higher on Thursday well that shouldn't happen now thanks to that government shutdown being avoided


EUR/USD daily chart below. Has it now formed a downtrend, has it busted out of the range? What do the folks pof ForexLive say - let me know in the comments!

eurusd chart dailt trend nomura 03 October 2023