Nomura are tipping a still higher US dollar, citing

  • the September "Higher for longer" rates viewpointof the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
  • and continued equity and bond outflows from China to persist in pressuring the yuan

Nomura see a higher USD/CNH, and this is likely to spread more widely to feed through to higher USD/Asia.


JP Morgan are also remaining bearish CNH, pointing to:

  • markets remain with concerns over China's prospects for economic growth
  • recent data has not been "constructive" - JPM point out that the Caixin Services PMI fell to its lowest since December 2022
  • recent property sector developments also worrying
  • PBOC stimulus efforts haven't moved the needle much higher for the yuan

JPM continue to recommend long USD/CNH.


Updating the offshore yuan:

usdcnh daily chart 26 September 2023